Notes

Heading 1

Heading 2

Heading 3

Heading 4

Heading 5
Heading 6

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit in voluptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur.

Block quote

Ordered list

  1. Item 1
  2. Item 2
  3. Item 3

Unordered list

  • Item A
  • Item B
  • Item C

Text link

Bold text

Emphasis

Superscript

Subscript

Causality
class version
Summary

3-hour interactive presentation. 8 lessons include and continue the Meeting version to address the accumulation of causal evidence, triangulation, diagramming, communication, and the indispensable value of causal research. Teach one week of class, or run an intensive workshop.

LESSON 1

Lesson title

Lesson description

LESSON 2

Lesson title

Lesson description

LESSON 3

Lesson title

Lesson description

LESSON 4

Lesson title

Lesson description

LESSON 5

Lesson title

Lesson description

LESSON 6

Lesson title

Lesson description

LESSON 7

Lesson title

Lesson description

LESSON 8

Lesson title

Lesson description

Causality

References:

Causality

Adams, Rachel C., Petroc Sumner, Solveiga Vivian-Griffiths, et al. “How Readers Understand Causal and Correlational Expressions Used in News Headlines.” Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied (US) 23, no. 1 (2017): 1–14. https://doi.org/10.1037/xap0000100.

Alexandre Teixeira, César, Bruno Direito, Mojtaba Bandarabadi, et al. “Epileptic Seizure Predictors Based on Computational Intelligence Techniques: A Comparative Study with 278 Patients.” Computer Methods and Programs in Biomedicine 114, no. 3 (2014): 324–36. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cmpb.2014.02.007.

Armet, Anissa M., Edward C. Deehan, Aidan F. O’Sullivan, et al. “Rethinking Healthy Eating in Light of the Gut Microbiome.” Cell Host & Microbe 30, no. 6 (2022): 764–85. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chom.2022.04.016.

Bailey, Drew H., Alexander J. Jung, Adriene M. Beltz, et al. “Causal Inference on Human Behaviour.” Nature Human Behaviour 8, no. 8 (2024): 1448–59. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-024-01939-z.

Barakat, Nadim, Brian C. Werner, Monica M. Arney, Wendy M. Novicoff, James A. Browne, and J. Brett Goodloe. “Causal Language and Inferences in Observational Rotator Cuff Database Studies Published from 2013 to 2022.” Journal of Orthopaedics 65 (July 2025): 106–11. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jor.2024.12.020.

Bleske-Rechek, April, Katelyn M. Morrison, and Luke D. Heidtke. “Causal Inference from Descriptions of Experimental and Non-Experimental Research: Public Understanding of Correlation-versus-Causation.” The Journal of General Psychology 142, no. 1 (2015): 48–70. https://doi.org/10.1080/00221309.2014.977216.

Boring, Edwin G. “The Nature and History of Experimental Control.” The American Journal of Psychology 67, no. 4 (1954): 573–89. https://doi.org/10.2307/1418483.

Bullock, John G., and Donald P. Green. “The Failings of Conventional Mediation Analysis and a Design-Based Alternative.” Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science 4, no. 4 (2021): 25152459211047227. https://doi.org/10.1177/25152459211047227.

Cartwright, Nancy. “Causation: One Word, Many Things.” Philosophy of Science 71, no. 5 (2004): 805–19. https://doi.org/10.1086/426771.

Cepeda, Nicholas J., Edward Vul, Doug Rohrer, John T. Wixted, and Harold Pashler. “Spacing Effects in Learning: A Temporal Ridgeline of Optimal Retention.” Psychological Science 19, no. 11 (2008): 1095–102. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9280.2008.02209.x.

“Control, n. Meanings, Etymology and More | Oxford English Dictionary.” Accessed October 24, 2024. https://www.oed.com/dictionary/control_n.

Cook, Thomas D. “Twenty-Six Assumptions That Have to Be Met If Single Random Assignment Experiments Are to Warrant ‘Gold Standard’ Status: A Commentary on Deaton and Cartwright.” Social Science & Medicine 210 (August 2018): 37–40. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2018.04.031.

Dahabreh, Issa J., and Kirsten Bibbins-Domingo. “Causal Inference About the Effects of Interventions From Observational Studies in Medical Journals.” JAMA 331, no. 21 (2024): 1845–53. https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2024.7741.

Dekkers, Olaf M. “On Causation in Therapeutic Research: Observational Studies, Randomised Experiments and Instrumental Variable Analysis.” Preventive Medicine, Special Section: Epidemiology, Risk, and Causation, vol. 53, no. 4 (2011): 239–41. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ypmed.2011.08.003.

Ditterich, Jochen, Mark E. Mazurek, and Michael N. Shadlen. “Microstimulation of Visual Cortex Affects the Speed of Perceptual Decisions.” Nature Neuroscience 6, no. 8 (2003): 891–98. https://doi.org/10.1038/nn1094.

Doll, R., and A. B. Hill. “Smoking and Carcinoma of the Lung.” BMJ 2, no. 4682 (1950): 739–48. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.2.4682.739.

Dunstan, Frank. “Nobel Prizes, Chocolate and Milk: The Statistical View.” Letter. Practical Neurology 13, no. 3 (2013): 206–7. https://doi.org/10.1136/practneurol-2013-000588.

Everitt, Brian, and David C. Howell, eds. Encyclopedia of Statistics in Behavioral Science. John Wiley & Sons, 2005.

Fagen-Ulmschneider, Wade. “Perception of Probability Words.” Accessed October 2, 2025. https://waf.cs.illinois.edu/visualizations/Perception-of-Probability-Words/.

Flanagin, Annette. Causal Language To Use or Not to Use…. 2019.

Gonon, Francois, Erwan Bezard, and Thomas Boraud. “Misrepresentation of Neuroscience Data Might Give Rise to Misleading Conclusions in the Media: The Case of Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder.” PLOS ONE 6, no. 1 (2011): e14618. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0014618.

Green, Donald P., Shang E. Ha, and John G. Bullock. “Enough Already about ‘Black Box’ Experiments: Studying Mediation Is More Difficult than Most Scholars Suppose.” The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 628 (2010): 200–208.

Haadiya Cheema, Robert Brophy, Jamie Collins, et al. “Causal Relationships between Pain, Medical Treatments, and Knee Osteoarthritis: A Graphical Causal Model to Guide Analyses.” Osteoarthritis and Cartilage 32, no. 3 (2024): 319–28. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joca.2023.10.007.

Haber, Noah A., Sarah E. Wieten, Julia M. Rohrer, et al. “Causal and Associational Language in Observational Health Research: A Systematic Evaluation.” American Journal of Epidemiology 191, no. 12 (2022): 2084–97. https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwac137.

Han, Mi Ah, and Gordon Guyatt. “Systematic Survey of the Causal Language Use in Systematic Reviews of Observational Studies: A Study Protocol.” BMJ Open 10, no. 7 (2020): e038571. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2020-038571.

Han, Mi Ah, Gareth Leung, Dawid Storman, et al. “Causal Language Use in Systematic Reviews of Observational Studies Is Often Inconsistent with Intent: A Systematic Survey.” Journal of Clinical Epidemiology 148 (August 2022): 65–73. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclinepi.2022.04.023.

Hernán, Miguel A. “The C-Word: Scientific Euphemisms Do Not Improve Causal Inference From Observational Data.” American Journal of Public Health 108, no. 5 (2018): 616–19. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2018.304337.

Hill, Austin Bradford. “The Environment and Disease: Association or Causation?” Proceedings of the Royal Society of Medicine 58, no. 5 (1965): 295–300. https://doi.org/10.1177/003591576505800503.

Huntington-Klein, Nick. Chapter 6 - Causal Diagrams | The Effect. n.d. Accessed October 20, 2025. https://theeffectbook.net/ch-CausalDiagrams.html.

Johnson, Steven. The Ghost Map: The Story of London’s Most Terrifying Epidemic--and How It Changed Science, Cities, and the Modern World. Riverhead Books, 2006.

Jonas, Eric, and Konrad Paul Kording. “Could a Neuroscientist Understand a Microprocessor?” PLoS Computational Biology 13, no. 1 (2017): e1005268. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1005268.

Judea Pearl and Dana Mackenzie. The Book of Why: The New Science of Cause and Effect. Penguin Books Limited, 2018.

Katz, Leor N., Jacob L. Yates, Jonathan W. Pillow, and Alexander C. Huk. “Dissociated Functional Significance of Decision-Related Activity in the Primate Dorsal Stream.” Nature 535, no. 7611 (2016): 285–88. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature18617.

Kuorikoski, Jaakko, and Caterina Marchionni. “Evidential Diversity and the Triangulation of Phenomena.” Philosophy of Science 83, no. 2 (2016): 227–47. https://doi.org/10.1086/684960.

Larsson, S. C., and N. Orsini. “Coffee Consumption and Risk of Stroke: A Dose-Response Meta-Analysis of Prospective Studies.” American Journal of Epidemiology 174, no. 9 (2011): 993–1001. https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwr226.

Lawlor, Debbie A., Roger M. Harbord, Jonathan A. C. Sterne, Nic Timpson, and George Davey Smith. “Mendelian Randomization: Using Genes as Instruments for Making Causal Inferences in Epidemiology.” Statistics in Medicine 27, no. 8 (2008): 1133–63. https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.3034.

Lawlor, Debbie A., Kate Tilling, and George Davey Smith. “Triangulation in Aetiological Epidemiology.” International Journal of Epidemiology, January 20, 2017, dyw314. https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyw314.

Lazarus, Clément, Romana Haneef, Philippe Ravaud, and Isabelle Boutron. “Classification and Prevalence of Spin in Abstracts of Non-Randomized Studies Evaluating an Intervention.” BMC Medical Research Methodology 15, no. 1 (2015): 1–8. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12874-015-0079-x.

Leek, Jeffery T., and Roger D. Peng. “What Is the Question?” Science 347, no. 6228 (2015): 1314–15. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaa6146.

Leung, Michael, and Marc G. Weisskopf. “Caution With Casual Causal Language.” JAMA Psychiatry 81, no. 3 (2024): 318–19. https://doi.org/10.1001/jamapsychiatry.2023.5241.

Li, Jian. “Economy and Nobel Prizes: Cause behind Chocolate and Milk?” Electronic Page. Practical Neurology 14, no. 2 (2014): e1–e1. https://doi.org/10.1136/practneurol-2013-000545.

Linnet, Jakob. “Neurobiological Underpinnings of Reward Anticipation and Outcome Evaluation in Gambling Disorder.” Frontiers in Behavioral Neuroscience 8 (March 2014). https://doi.org/10.3389/fnbeh.2014.00100.

Linthwaite, Sarah, and Geraint N. Fuller. “Milk, Chocolate and Nobel Prizes.” Letter. Practical Neurology 13, no. 1 (2013): 63–63. https://doi.org/10.1136/practneurol-2012-000471.

Lippi, D., and E. Gotuzzo. “The Greatest Steps towards the Discovery of Vibrio Cholerae.” Clinical Microbiology and Infection 20, no. 3 (2014): 191–95. https://doi.org/10.1111/1469-0691.12390.

List, Alexandra. “The Limits of Reasoning: Students’ Evaluations of Anecdotal, Descriptive, Correlational, and Causal Evidence.” The Journal of Experimental Education 92, no. 1 (2024): 1–31. https://doi.org/10.1080/00220973.2023.2174487.

Messerli, Franz H. “Chocolate Consumption, Cognitive Function, and Nobel Laureates.” New England Journal of Medicine 367, no. 16 (2012): 1562–64. https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMon1211064.

Munafò, Marcus R., and George Davey Smith. “Repeating Experiments Is Not Enough.” Nature 553, no. 7689 (2018): 399–401. https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-018-01023-3.

Newbury, Chloe R., Rebecca Crowley, Kathleen Rastle, and Jakke Tamminen. “Sleep Deprivation and Memory: Meta-Analytic Reviews of Studies on Sleep Deprivation before and after Learning.” Psychological Bulletin (US) 147, no. 11 (2021): 1215–40. https://doi.org/10.1037/bul0000348.

Nosek, Brian A., and Timothy M. Errington. “What Is Replication?” PLOS Biology 18, no. 3 (2020): e3000691. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.3000691.

Nunes, Kevin L., Cassidy E. Hatton, Anna T. Pham, Carolyn Blank, and Sacha Maimone. “Causal Interpretations of Correlational Evidence Regarding Violence.” Journal of Interpersonal Violence 40, nos. 15–16 (2025): 3712–28. https://doi.org/10.1177/08862605241285996.

Pearl, Judea, and Dana Mackenzie. The Book of Why: The New Science of Cause and Effect. Basic books, 2018.

“PhotoDNA | Microsoft.” Accessed July 1, 2025. https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/photodna.

Roitman, Jamie D., and Michael N. Shadlen. “Response of Neurons in the Lateral Intraparietal Area during a Combined Visual Discrimination Reaction Time Task.” The Journal of Neuroscience 22, no. 21 (2002): 9475–89. https://doi.org/10.1523/JNEUROSCI.22-21-09475.2002.

Rosenbaum, Paul R. “Cochran’s Causal Crossword.” Observational Studies 1, no. 1 (2015): 205–11. https://doi.org/10.1353/obs.2015.0021.

Ry, Ja N. Ua. ILLUSTRATION BY DAVID PARKINS. n.d.

Salzman, C. Daniel, Kenneth H. Britten, and William T. Newsome. “Cortical Microstimulation Influences Perceptual Judgements of Motion Direction.” Nature 346, no. 6280 (1990): 174–77. https://doi.org/10.1038/346174a0.

Sanderson, Eleanor, M. Maria Glymour, Michael V. Holmes, et al. “Mendelian Randomization.” Nature Reviews. Methods Primers 2 (February 2022): 6. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43586-021-00092-5.

Sargeant, Jan M., Annette M. O’Connor, Sarah C. Totton, and Ellen R. Vriezen. “Watch Your Language: An Exploration of the Use of Causal Wording in Veterinary Observational Research.” Frontiers in Veterinary Science 9 (October 2022). https://doi.org/10.3389/fvets.2022.1004801.

Seifert, Colleen M., Michael Harrington, Audrey L. Michal, and Priti Shah. “Causal Theory Error in College Students’ Understanding of Science Studies.” Cognitive Research: Principles and Implications 7, no. 1 (2022): 4. https://doi.org/10.1186/s41235-021-00347-5.

Shadlen, Michael N., and William T. Newsome. “Neural Basis of a Perceptual Decision in the Parietal Cortex (Area LIP) of the Rhesus Monkey.” Journal of Neurophysiology 86, no. 4 (2001): 1916–36. https://doi.org/10.1152/jn.2001.86.4.1916.

Shimonovich, Michal, Anna Pearce, Hilary Thomson, Katherine Keyes, and Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi. “Assessing Causality in Epidemiology: Revisiting Bradford Hill to Incorporate Developments in Causal Thinking.” European Journal of Epidemiology 36, no. 9 (2020): 873. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10654-020-00703-7.

Siddiqi, Shan H., Konrad P. Kording, Josef Parvizi, and Michael D. Fox. “Causal Mapping of Human Brain Function.” Nature Reviews Neuroscience 23, no. 6 (2022): 361–75. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41583-022-00583-8.

Smith, Katharine A., Niall Boyce, Astrid Chevance, et al. “Triangulating Evidence from the GALENOS Living Systematic Review on Trace Amine-Associated Receptor 1 (TAAR1) Agonists in Psychosis.” The British Journal of Psychiatry 226, no. 3 (2025): 162–70. https://doi.org/10.1192/bjp.2024.237.

Suzuki, Etsuji, Tomohiro Shinozaki, and Eiji Yamamoto. “Causal Diagrams: Pitfalls and Tips.” Journal of Epidemiology 30, no. 4 (2020): 153–62. https://doi.org/10.2188/jea.JE20190192.

Tennant, Peter W. G., Eleanor J. Murray, Kellyn F. Arnold, et al. “Use of Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) to Identify Confounders in Applied Health Research: Review and Recommendations.” International Journal of Epidemiology 50, no. 2 (2021): 620–32. https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyaa213.

“Tinbergen’s Four Questions.” Accessed June 11, 2025. https://www.conted.ox.ac.uk/courses/samples/animal-behaviour-an-introduction-online/index.html.

Torday, John S., and František Baluška. “Why Control an Experiment? From Empiricism, via Consciousness, toward Implicate Order.” EMBO Reports 20, no. 10 (2019): e49110. https://doi.org/10.15252/embr.201949110.

United States. Surgeon General’s Advisory Committee on Smoking. Smoking and Health: Report of the Advisory Committee to the Surgeon General of the Public Health Service. No. 1103. Public Health Service Publication. US Department of Health, Education, and Welfare, Public Health Service, 1964.

Wager, Tor D., James K. Rilling, Edward E. Smith, et al. “Placebo-Induced Changes in fMRI in the Anticipation and Experience of Pain.” Science 303, no. 5661 (2004): 1162–67. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1093065.

Wei, Shuangyuan (Sharon). “Randomized Experiment and Potential Outcome Model.” Medium, May 28, 2021. https://medium.com/geekculture/an-introduction-of-randomized-experiment-aka-a-b-testing-and-potential-outcome-model-f2c93f73d426.

Zabalgoitia, Miguel, Jonathan L. Halperin, Lesly A. Pearce, Joseph L. Blackshear, Richard W. Asinger, and Robert G. Hart. “Transesophageal Echocardiographic Correlates of Clinical Risk of Thromboembolism in Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation.” Journal of the American College of Cardiology 31, no. 7 (1998): 1622–26. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0735-1097(98)00146-6.

Zhou, Bingjie, Mengyuan Ruan, Yongyi Pan, Lu Wang, and Fang Fang Zhang. “Coffee Consumption and Mortality among United States Adults: A Prospective Cohort Study.” The Journal of Nutrition 155, no. 7 (2025): 2312–21. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tjnut.2025.05.004.

Zoom. “Join Our Cloud HD Video Meeting.” Accessed March 20, 2026. https://upenn.zoom.us/j/6398243525.

Causality

Instructor guide:

Causality

Overview and Introduction