Notes

Heading 1

Heading 2

Heading 3

Heading 4

Heading 5
Heading 6

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit in voluptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur.

Block quote

Ordered list

  1. Item 1
  2. Item 2
  3. Item 3

Unordered list

  • Item A
  • Item B
  • Item C

Text link

Bold text

Emphasis

Superscript

Subscript

Causality

Scientific reasoning is defined by stories connecting 'what' to 'why,' but confirming a cause is challenging. The space between rigorous assessment of cause and reasonable speculation is riddled with consequential mistakes. In this unit, we highlight the most common mis-steps, learn to diagram and classify evidence from individual studies, evaluate a case for causality with diverse types of data, and triangulate to collect complementary evidence. Finally, we discuss the delicate art of communicating in a world that seeks 'whys' and weigh the importance of the explicit pursuit of cause in spite of its many challenges.

Lesson 1

Lesson title

Lesson description

Lesson 2

Lesson title

Lesson description

Lesson 3

Lesson title

Lesson description

Lesson 4

Lesson title

Lesson description

Lesson 5

Lesson title

Lesson description

Lesson 6

Lesson title

Lesson description

Lesson 7

Lesson title

Lesson description

Lesson 8

Lesson title

Lesson description

Causality
Summary
Causality

References:

Causality

Bleske-Rechek, A., Morrison, K. M., & Heidtke, L. D. (2015). Causal inference from descriptions of experimental and non-experimental research: Public understanding of correlation-versus-causation. The Journal of General Psychology, 142(1), 48–70. https://doi.org/10.1080/00221309.2014.977216

Capili, B., & Anastasi, J. K. (2021). Overview: Cohort Study Designs. The American Journal of Nursing, 121(12), 45–48. https://doi.org/10.1097/01.NAJ.0000803196.49507.08

Doll, R., & Hill, A. B. (1950). Smoking and Carcinoma of the Lung. BMJ, 2(4682), 739–748. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.2.4682.739

Errington, T. M., Iorns, E., Gunn, W., Tan, F. E., Lomax, J., & Nosek, B. A. (2014). An open investigation of the reproducibility of cancer biology research. eLife, 3, e04333. https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.04333

Hernán, M. A. (2018). The C-Word: Scientific Euphemisms Do Not Improve Causal Inference From Observational Data. American Journal of Public Health, 108(5), 616–619. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2018.304337

Hill, A. B. (1965). The Environment and Disease: Association or Causation? Proceedings of the Royal Society of Medicine, 58(5), 295–300. https://doi.org/10.1177/003591576505800503

Instructions for Authors | JAMA | JAMA Network. (n.d.). Retrieved September 4, 2026, from https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/pages/instructions-for-authors#SecUseOfCausalLanguage

Kappes, A., Harvey, A. H., Lohrenz, T., Montague, P. R., & Sharot, T. (2020). Confirmation bias in the utilization of others’ opinion strength. Nature Neuroscience, 23(1), 130–137. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41593-019-0549-2

Katz, L. N., Yates, J. L., Pillow, J. W., & Huk, A. C. (2016). Dissociated functional significance of decision-related activity in the primate dorsal stream. Nature, 535(7611), 285–288. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature18617

Koch, R. (1884). An Address on Cholera and its Bacillus. BMJ, 2(1236), 453–459. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.2.1236.453

Kuorikoski, J., & Marchionni, C. (2016). Evidential Diversity and the Triangulation of Phenomena. Philosophy of Science, 83(2), 227–247. https://doi.org/10.1086/684960

Larsson, S. C., & Orsini, N. (2011). Coffee Consumption and Risk of Stroke: A Dose-Response Meta-Analysis of Prospective Studies. American Journal of Epidemiology, 174(9), 993–1001. https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwr226

Leek, J. T., & Peng, R. D. (2015). What is the question? Science, 347(6228), 1314–1315. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaa6146

List, A. (2024). The Limits of Reasoning: Students’ Evaluations of Anecdotal, Descriptive, Correlational, and Causal Evidence. The Journal of Experimental Education, 92(1), 1–31. https://doi.org/10.1080/00220973.2023.2174487

Messerli, F. H. (2012). Chocolate Consumption, Cognitive Function, and Nobel Laureates. New England Journal of Medicine, 367(16), 1562–1564. https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMon1211064

Munafò, M. R., & Davey Smith, G. (2018). Repeating experiments is not enough. Nature, 553(7689), 399–401. https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-018-01023-3

Nosek, B. A., & Errington, T. M. (2020). What is replication? PLOS Biology, 18(3), e3000691. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.3000691

Nunes, K. L., Hatton, C. E., Pham, A. T., Blank, C., & Maimone, S. (2025). Causal Interpretations of Correlational Evidence Regarding Violence. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 40(15–16), 3712–3728. https://doi.org/10.1177/08862605241285996

Pearl, J., & Mackenzie, D. (2018). The book of why: The new science of cause and effect. Basic books.

Roitman, J. D., & Shadlen, M. N. (2002). Response of Neurons in the Lateral Intraparietal Area during a Combined Visual Discrimination Reaction Time Task. The Journal of Neuroscience, 22(21), 9475–9489. https://doi.org/10.1523/JNEUROSCI.22-21-09475.2002

Ruths, M. B. (2009). The Lesson of John Snow and the Broad Street Pump. AMA Journal of Ethics, 11(6), 470–472. https://doi.org/10.1001/virtualmentor.2009.11.6.mhst1-0906

Smith, K. A., Boyce, N., Chevance, A., Chiocchia, V., Correll, C. U., Donoghue, K., Ghodke, N., Kambeu, T., Malhi, G. S., Macleod, M., Milligan, L., Morgan, J., Potts, J., Robinson, E. S. J., Siafis, S., Sommer, I. E. C., Voelkl, B., Salanti, G., Cipriani, A., & Higgins, J. P. T. (2025). Triangulating evidence from the GALENOS living systematic review on trace amine-associated receptor 1 (TAAR1) agonists in psychosis. The British Journal of Psychiatry, 226(3), 162–170. https://doi.org/10.1192/bjp.2024.237

Turakhia, M. P., Ziegler, P. D., Schmitt, S. K., Chang, Y., Fan, J., Than, C. T., Keung, E. K., & Singer, D. E. (2015). Atrial Fibrillation Burden and Short-Term Risk of Stroke: Case-Crossover Analysis of Continuously Recorded Heart Rhythm From Cardiac Electronic Implanted Devices. Circulation. Arrhythmia and Electrophysiology, 8(5), 1040–1047. https://doi.org/10.1161/CIRCEP.114.003057

United States. Surgeon General’s Advisory Committee on Smoking. (1964). Smoking and Health: Report of the Advisory Committee to the Surgeon General of the Public Health Service (No. 1103; Public Health Service Publication). US Department of Health, Education, and Welfare, Public Health Service. https://collections.nlm.nih.gov/ext/document/101584932X202/PDF/101584932X202.pdf

VanderWeele, T. J., & Hernan, M. A. (2013). Causal inference under multiple versions of treatment. Journal of Causal Inference, 1(1), 1–20. https://doi.org/10.1515/jci-2012-0002

Wolf, P. A., Dawber, T. R., Thomas, H. E., & Kannel, W. B. (1978). Epidemiologic assessment of chronic atrial fibrillation and risk of stroke: The fiamingham Study. Neurology, 28(10), 973–973. https://doi.org/10.1212/WNL.28.10.973

Woodward, J. (2004). Making Things Happen: A Theory of Causal Explanation (1st ed.). Oxford University PressNew York. https://doi.org/10.1093/0195155270.001.0001

Zabalgoitia, M., Halperin, J. L., Pearce, L. A., Blackshear, J. L., Asinger, R. W., & Hart, R. G. (1998). Transesophageal Echocardiographic Correlates of Clinical Risk of Thromboembolism in Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation. Journal of the American College of Cardiology, 31(7), 1622–1626. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0735-1097(98)00146-6

Causality

Instructor guide:

Causality

Overview and Introduction